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Caitlin Kalinowski: prediction

17 May 2026 Lenny's Podcast Why we’re at the beginning of the AI hardware boom | Caitlin Kalinowski (ex–OpenAI, Meta, Apple)

“What I'm seeing in the AI world in San Francisco is there's a dawning realization, especially in the labs, I think that the acceleration is going so vertical that what you can do behind a keyboard with AI is going to saturate.”

— Caitlin Kalinowski

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Speaker
Caitlin Kalinowski
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
prediction
Recorded
17 May 2026
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

Transcript context

…It sounds so hard and complicated. They're just like, "Software is so nice, you just write some code, ship it. It's great." Why do you think people are getting so into robots and hardware now? What's the driving trend? Yeah. What I'm seeing in the AI world in San Francisco is there's a dawning realization, especially in the labs, I think that the acceleration is going so vertical that what you can do behind a keyboard with AI is going to saturate. And I don't know when it's going to saturate and nobody else knows either, but when that happens, the next frontier is the physical world. And so what I see happening is the labs, big tech, startups are all realizing at the same time, "Okay, this is coming. We're going to have complex systems that can solve problems in the digital world very, very quickly. We already have them. They're going to get better and more comprehensive and more capable." If you think about that as a frontier, you could see the end of that tunnel. Now, I don't know when it's going to be again, but we can see that that's going to saturate at some point, or at least people think it will. And when that happens, the next frontier is hardware. The next frontier is robotics, manufacturing, industrialization, the sensing layer in the real world, the ability to move objects in the real world and eventually we hope space. So one of the most interesting lines of development is these humanoid robots, that's kind of like our meat brains are always more attracted to robots that look like us and act like us. There's a few companies very ahead. There's Optimus, Tesla, there's Figure, there's NEO, there's a few others. What's your sense on just the current state of these humanoids and kind of where ... I don't know, how close are we to humanoids being around us?…

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