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…t to get somebody to the polls, make them think that their vote will result in something not being built and it will work. You know what I mean? >> Exactly. >> And so you have a bunch of Democrats who are still kind of casting around looking for a message. And I think you have the president giving them a gift because he is still very much in league with the Andre Horowitz wing of the Republican party which is all gas no breaks when it comes to AI development. And Trump is basically giving them free reign to say you write the policies that you want in including backing a moratorum on all state level AI legislation. Yeah, it does kind of feel like AI is polarizing in a very predictable way. you know, Republicans think it's good, Democrats think it's bad. I think that's why this is a reasonable prediction. I don't know if it's going to happen in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election, but I agree that this will become a very salient issue for voters in one of those two elections. >> Yeah. And I mean, you say that Republicans think AI is good, but I would say Republicans do not necessarily think data center in my backyard is good and they do not necessarily think AI takes my job is good, right? So, like that is the actual political opportunity here and I just think you're going to see some Democrats use it. And by the way, I also think you're going to see some Republicans sees it. And like if you want a sort of secondary prediction here is that you do see some sort of schism next year within the Republican party over this very issue. >> And what would a resolution criteria for this be? What would convince you that in 2026 a group of Democrats had won uh or or found political purchase with this argument? Let's say you see like three uh Democrats flip seats next year uh who espouse anti-AI sentiment in their campaigns. >> I like that. My medium confidence prediction for 2026 is that a primarily AI generated work will be nominated for a major entertainment award. Now what do I mean by this? I mean basically the big four the Emmys, the Grammys, the Oscars and the Tony's. >> I think this is nano bananas. Why do you think this is true? >> So here's my case for this. Number one, we we have talked about on the show this year that AI slop among many people is very popular. Right? In the past few months, at least six AI or AI assisted artists have debuted on the Billboard charts. Um we also know that AI video is starting to get quite good. Um filmmakers like Darren Areronowski uh have been experimenting with AI to do storytelling and visual effects in their films. Um we now have these sort of professionalgrade tools for Hollywood studios and filmmakers who are increasingly interested in using them. Some filmmakers obviously are not, but they are not going to be the ones who are proving this prediction true. Um, and we've also seen some willingness on the part of the sort of groups that decide these awards to kind of allow AI to get its foot in the door. In fact, earlier this year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which u votes on the Oscar winners, uh, decided that the use of AI in films would neither w AI to get its foot in the door. In fact, earlier this year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which u votes on the Oscar winners, uh, decided that the use of AI in films would neither help nor harm the chances of achieving an Oscar nomination. Basically, they said it's about the quality of the work. as long as a human is involved in the film's creation somewhere in the process, it can still be considered for an Oscar. I've also heard rumors that Demis at Deep Mind is very interested in having them win one of these awards, too. Um, so yeah, I bet he is. That doesn't mean it's going to happen. I'm also very interested in winning best picture. Kevin, >> I think you've got a chance at a Tony this year. >> Very nice of you to say. Look, this um is not going to happen in 2026. Um I think particularly in the in the movies and that is just because among the voter base for these awards there is such justifiable anxiety about jobs being lost to this technology that they are not going to want to clap it on the back at the end of the year and say huzzah what a great film you've made. So I think film and TV it's not going to happen. What I will say is that when this does eventually happen, because I do think that yes, probably eventually something that is made like largely via AI does win one of these majors, it's going to happen in the Grammys because I think there people are already using so many software tools to make songs and it's just not that big of a leap to say I'm going to have something generate like a 100 hooks for me and like I'm going to pick the best one and make a song out of it. So, I think it will eventually happen uh with a Grammy, but it's not going to happen in 2026. You might be right, but just so I'm clear, I did not predict that an AI generator work would win one of these awards, just they would be nominated. That's the resolution criteria. >> And it is an honor just to be nominated. >> Okay, Casey, what is your low confidence prediction for 2026? Take a flyer. >> My low confidence prediction is that OpenAI is going to retire Sora, >> the text to video generator. Sora is an app we talked about a lot on the show this year. It was OpenAI's move into social networking and generated a lot of attention. uh in part because of just the novelty of being able to make a video out of text uh with your own image or the image of certain celebrities or OpenAI CEO Sam Alman. But it also generated a lot of controversy over in particular the fact that at least when it launched it was very easy to make uh videos out of copyrighted IP. This has caused a bunch of legal headaches for Open AI. Most recently they had to strike a deal with Disney and give them a bunch of stock uh just so that they could get access to some Disney characters. But I think by the end of 2026 they throw in the towel on this and here's why. We know that there is a sense that they might be just beginning to fall behind the frontier labs when it comes to the quality of their models. That has huge business implications for them. And this is a company that is running on like a razor's edge of uh like existence, right? where it needs to when it comes to the quality of their models. That has huge business implications for them. And this is a company that is running on like a razor's edge of uh like existence, right? where it needs to raise so much money so that it can continue to lose so much money so that it can have a chance at inventing the model that will eventually turn a profit and I think by the end of 2026 sort of just looks like a big distraction during this code red moment Sam Alman said we are going to place the focus on chat GBT I still think that openai will see value in having video generation they're just going to say hey chat GPT is our champion here that is the app that is already on everyone's phone we are going to pivot around building social features into chat GBT rather than have this app out there that is already starting to decline in number of downloads. So that is my prediction for a low confidence in 2026. >> And I think this one is a little crazy because uh I I agree that it's possible that OpenAI will retire the Sora app. Um and I think I would have agreed that it was possible they would retire the project altogether until this Disney deal from the other day which I think made me confident that this is something they feel like they can actually make real money from. Um the terms of the deal, we still don't quite know what they were, but it is plausible to me that major entertainment studios are going to look to Sora as a way to cut their own costs. It's going to become maybe a more professional tool rather than a consumer social media product. But I think the video generation technology is good enough and useful enough to professional filmmakers that it will continue to exist. >> I mean, I don't know. I think that over the next year, we're going to see a bunch of like really weird and bad uh Disney IP slop. you know, it's going to be like, you know, pregnant Mickey kissing Sonic the Hedgehog or whatever. And Disney might have second thoughts about this. And I wonder how many other companies are going to be lining up to sign a similar deal. >> All right, my low conference prediction for 2026 is that Apple will replace Tim Cook after his retirement with an outside CEO. Now, Casey, I'm you're shaking your head at me. I presume you do not think this is likely. I do not think it is likely either, which is why it is my low confidence prediction. But I do think it would be interesting. >> Sure. I Yes, I agree it would be interesting if Apple got a new CEO. I don't think it's going to happen next year. But why do you think it might? >> So, I think Tim Cook is very likely to retire next year. The Financial Times recently reported that Apple was stepping up its succession planning efforts as it prepared for him to step down. Um, and they also reported that there was a frontr runner for Cook's replacement, the Apple senior vice president of hardware engineering, John Turnis. Um, I think most people who are careful Apple watchers expect them to go with someone safe, someone, you know, inside the company, someone with a long experience running a major division, maybe someone from the hardware side of the business, um, since that's where,…

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