Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedSpeaker unverified: belief
17 Mar 2026 Cheeky Pint Creating prediction markets (and suing the CFTC) with Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
“You can have margin, you can have more like institutional grade liquidity and all of that. And I think that that's a great example of like when we start going more in outside of binary markets and more into the traditional ones, then what we're doing is expanding kind of that from grain to compute.”
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- Recorded
- 17 Mar 2026
- Publisher
- Cheeky Pint
Transcript context
…No, you're good. Let's talk different market verticals. And I think today everyone gets elections, they get sports, they get economic indicators. But I think you can look at prediction markets as this kind of search function across the set of interesting markets humanity wants to trade. And it's kind of a weird artifact that like the CME used to greenlight like wheat and oil and corn. But now you get to greenlight 1,000 markets a day. So what do you think we're going to find as we do that? One thing that we're very excited for, we're actually starting to go in the direction of, for example, things like watches and bags and all of those things are more going to the collectible side. They're actually able to do derivatives on those things. One thing that you should talk about is the— Yeah, I feel like compute could be a huge one. And I think the compute that... What we're thinking a lot about is that there's a lot of these types of things that they function better as a more traditional future. So things that don't have a binary, "Will it be at this price? Yes/no." But it's more like an actual future. You can have margin, you can have more like institutional grade liquidity and all of that. And I think that that's a great example of like when we start going more in outside of binary markets and more into the traditional ones, then what we're doing is expanding kind of that from grain to compute. Because it strikes me that obviously the futures markets that have worked best are these large commodity categories. But we're sort of in an era where humanity is spending more money than it's ever spent before on a specific new kind of commodity. And so, and the other traditional markets don't seem to be attacking compute. So the way that we think about—we want to be the biggest derivatives exchange in the world. And for that, when we think about product roadmap, there's four things that matter. The first one is breadth of topics of markets. So we think about compute, we think about sports, think about elections, think about securities, we think about all of that. The second bucket is really market structure. So right now we only have the binary yes/no. We want to have things like futures, like swaps, options, all of that. The third one is really margining systems. Right now it's very bad. You have to put all the money up front— You have to tie up all the capital.…
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