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Satya Nadella: prediction

12 Nov 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI

“If I think about all of the Office artifacts being structured better, the ability to do the joins between structured and unstructured better because of the agentic world, that will grow the underlying infrastructure business.”

— Satya Nadella

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Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker
Satya Nadella
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
prediction
Recorded
12 Nov 2025
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

Transcript context

…How does that flow? At the end of the day, there is going to be a significant amount of time where there’s going to be a hybrid world, because people are going to be using the tools that are going to be working with agents that have to use tools, and they have to communicate with each other. What’s the artifact I generate that then a human needs to see? All of these things will be real considerations in any place, the outputs, inputs. I don’t think it’ll just be about, “Oh, I migrated off.” The bottom line is that I have to live in this hybrid world. But that doesn’t fully answer your question because there can be a real new efficient frontier where it’s just agents working with agents and completely optimized. Even when agents are working with agents, what are the primitives that are needed? Do you need a storage system? Does that storage system need to have e-discovery? Do you need to have observability? Do you need to have an identity system that is going to use multiple models with all having one identity system? These are all the core underlying rails we have today for what are the Office systems or what have you. And that’s what we will have in the future as well. You’ve talked about databases. I mean man, I would love all of Excel to have a database backend. I would love for all that to happen immediately. And that database is a good database. Databases in fact will be a big thing that will grow. If I think about all of the Office artifacts being structured better, the ability to do the joins between structured and unstructured better because of the agentic world, that will grow the underlying infrastructure business. It happens that the consumption of that is all being driven by agents. You could say all that is just-in-time generated software by a model company. That could also be true. We will be one such model company too. We will build in... The competition could be that we will build a model plus all the infrastructure and provision it, and then there will be competition between a bunch of those folks who can do that. Speaking of model companies, you say not only will you have the infrastructure, you’ll have the model itself. Right now, Microsoft AI’s most recent model that was released two months ago is 36 in Chatbot Arena. You obviously have the IP rights to OpenAI. To the extent you agree with that, it seems to be behind. Why is that the case, especially given the fact that you theoretically have the right to fork OpenAI’s monorepo or distill their models, especially if it’s a big part of your strategy that you need to have a leading model company?…

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