Lex Fridman: belief

Transcript context

…Yeah, yeah. Can we just one step at a time and can that add up to a lot of steps? Even though though we still need clinical trials, even though we still need laws, even though the FDA and other organizations will still not be perfect, can we just move everything in a positive direction and when you add up all those positive directions, do you get everything that was going to happen from here to 2100 instead happens from 2027 to 2032 or something? Another way that I think the world might be changing with AI even today, but moving towards this future of the powerful super useful AI is programming. So how do you see the nature of programming because it’s so intimate to the actual act of building AI. How do you see that changing for us humans? I think that’s going to be one of the areas that changes fastest for two reasons. One, programming is a skill that’s very close to the actual building of the AI. So the farther a skill is from the people who are building the AI, the longer it’s going to take to get disrupted by the AI. I truly believe that AI will disrupt agriculture. Maybe it already has in some ways, but that’s just very distant from the folks who are building AI, and so I think it’s going to take longer. But programming is the bread and butter of a large fraction of the employees who work at Anthropic and at the other companies, and so it’s going to happen fast. The other reason it’s going to happen fast is with programming, you close the loop both when you’re training the model and when you’re applying the model. The idea that the model can write the code means that the model can then run the code and then see the results and interpret it back. And so it really has an ability unlike hardware, unlike biology, which we just discussed, the model has an ability to close the loop. And so I think those two things are going to lead to the model getting good at programming very fast. As I saw on typical real-world programming tasks, models have gone from 3% in January of this year to 50% in October of this year. So we’re on that S-curve where it’s going to start slowing down soon because you can only get to 100%. But I would guess that in another 10 months, we’ll probably get pretty close. We’ll be at least 90%. So again, I would guess, I don’t know how long it’ll take, but I would guess again, 2026, 2027 Twitter people who crop out these numbers and get rid of the caveats, I don’t know.…

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