Dwarkesh Patel: uncertainty

Transcript context

…That would be plausible that it would happen. He said, “We only hire on demonstrable skills,” and I asked him who he’s hired without credentials. Then what did he say? I don't remember. I don't know if you asked him directly, but that was his claim. I don't know if you followed up that way. Here's a good way of thinking about it in Computer Science. I have heard that top firms like Google sometimes hire contest winners. But when I ask people there, how many standardly credentialed employees do you have in your programming and how many contest winners without credentials? The results are, yeah, you have three contest winners and thousands of regular credential workers. So basically, you have to walk on water to get hired by these firms without having the regular credentials.…

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