Benjamin Mann: preference

Transcript context

…That's a good segue to you have a very specific way of thinking about AGI and defining what AGI means. I think AGI is kind of a loaded term, and so I tend not to use it very much anymore internally. Instead, I like the term transformative AI because it's less about can it do as much as people do? Can it do literally everything and more about objectively is it causing transformation in society and the economy? A very concrete way of measuring that is the Economic Turing Test. I didn't come up with this, but I really like it. It's this idea that if you contract an agent for a month or three months on a particular job, if you decide to hire that agent and it turns out to be a machine rather than a person, then it's passed the Economic Turing Test for that role. And then you can sort of expand that out in the same way that for measuring purchasing power parity or inflation, there's a basket of goods. You can have a market basket of jobs, and if the agent can pass the Economic Turing Test for 50% of money-weighted jobs, then we have transformative AI and the exact thresholds don't really matter that much, but it's kind of illustrative to say if we pass that threshold, then we would expect massive effects on world GDP increases and societal change and how many people are employed and things like that because societal institutions and organizations are sticky, it's slow to have change, but once these things are possible you know that it's the start of a new era. Along these lines, Dario, your CO recently talked about how AI is going to take a huge part of, I don't know, half of white-collar jobs, that unemployment might go up to something like 20%. I know you're even more vocal and opinionated about just how much impact AI is already having in the workplace that people may not even be realizing. Talk about just what you think people are missing about the impact AI is going to have on jobs and is already having.…

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