Stephen Jennings: prediction

Transcript context

…As you know, Kenya has many different ethnic groups, tribal groups. If you think about the prospects for Kenyans all truly thinking of themselves as a single nation, what variable does one track to see how well that’s going? Is it the soccer team? Is it what music they listen to? Is it something about politics? It’s probably urbanization, because once people move into an urban setting, those tribal barriers and differences, they gradually melt away, and you can see that — and you’re going to see it this week in our office. Most of our staff, they grew up in an urban context, but you’re not going to distinguish anyone by their tribal background because they’re living together, they’re working together. I think through urbanization, those barriers are really — they’ve already eroded massively. The politicians like to stir them up every election cycle, but the underlying integration I think is very pronounced. I think it’s much less of an issue than the outside world probably thinks. Is there a risk that Kenya becomes too top-heavy with Nairobi overdeveloping, the way arguably London has, Vienna has in Austria? How are the second and third cities doing in terms of health or a certain amount of political balance?…

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