Speaker unverified: belief

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…It's like FiveThirtyEight did, kind of a meta-poll interpretation. Exactly. And you can have one number that's aggregating all of that. And even in the last election, there was someone that actually did this. They commission a specific poll to do nearest neighbors type of thing. It's like it was... I don't know how it was, but a different type of poll. And then they were able to make a lot more money in the markets. And that's the whole point of like having money and skin in the game aligns the incentives with truth. And then the polls are not just paid for tell me what I want to hear but the real numbers. So I think it's complementary. Same with the news. A lot of people are like prediction markets will destroy the news. I think it's way more complementary. It's like when you're talking about an election, you're going to give your opinion. The market is not going to give you an opinion. You still need the commentators, but they're going to be able to show a number and be like, this is what the forecast is and this is my opinion on it. I don't think the opinions are going to disappear, but— You guys referenced insider trading earlier, and there's just the policy question as to what the right policy should be around insider trading when it comes to prediction markets. I think it's pretty nuanced, like it's nuanced in the stocks case, right? Where famously there's lots of, you see SEC enforcement actions all the time against the things that aren't allowed. But there are cases like a hedge fund can have proprietary satellite data of the Walmart parking lot and use that to trade earnings. And that is information that only that hedge fund has. But that is permissible. And so similarly, I think there's a complex set of line-drawing exercises here, where presumably we don't think government officials should be trading in advance of military actions. What about leading up to the Super Bowl, you know, predicting the Bad Bunny halftime show length? I mean, you know, people have that information, right? And so where do you think the lines should get drawn on insider trading?…

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