Nathan Labenz: evaluation

Transcript context

…decision. It was just like, this is again, you know, I said, "You sound like, sound like a World War II era- Mm-hmm ... uh, mentality." And they were like, "Yeah, that's, that's how a lot of us feel." Part three: the real world. Here's the thing about a week swallowed whole by a political fight. The technology itself did not pause for one second of it. While Washington argued, builders kept turning AI into things that touched the ground: medicine, mathematics, working software, the supply chains that move physical goods. Start with the one that moved me most. A company announced a one-minute full-body medical scan this week, cheap, beautiful, and readable by AI, and it set off something I felt in my bones ever since my own family's hard run through the medical system. nounced a one-minute full-body medical scan this week, cheap, beautiful, and readable by AI, and it set off something I felt in my bones ever since my own family's hard run through the medical system. I mean, if the government thinks that they're gonna block people from using this technology, I think they're gonna have a real fight on their hands, and this is going to probably play out in so many ways. I mean, I, you know, I've talked about this probably ad nauseam at this point, but in the whole cancer experience that I recently went through, fortunately, I didn't have to get off of the standard, you know, my son didn't have to get off of the standard treatment protocol. Like, it worked for him and all the exotic stuff that we were scouting out, we never really had to, to actually try to get our hands on. But I was already gearing up for a battle, um, on so many fronts. You know, just even the DNA testing that we did, which is not standard and which fortunately we, you know, didn't have any real trouble getting our oncologist to support, um, that like fundamentally changed my information landscape and how I was thinking about, you know, how confident I could be that he was in fact cured. You know, I think we're like over ninety-nine percent now given all these results. We wouldn't have been able to get to that level of confidence otherwise. And, you know, in, in terms of talking about the hypotheticals, like, well, what if this next test were to come back a little bit positive? The answer's just like, "Well, you know, we wouldn't, we wouldn't treat on that anyway. We would, um, we would really need to wait for gross disease." And I just think, boy, people are not gonna be content with that for much longer. You know, that when we have these technologies, and especially this one, I think is what makes it so promising, and obviously they have to deliver, right? I think a, a little dose of kind of, um, skepticism is probably warranted. You know, will this ac- ever actually happen? Um, I don't mean to cast doubt on that, but you know, it's not insane to wonder. But assuming that they can actually deliver on their promise, the fact that it takes a minute and therefore is probably gonna be pretty cheap, you know, and I don't know what their retail price will end up settling at, but presumably it is something that they can operate quite cheaply on the margin. And the fact that it's so beautiful to look at. You know, people will be able to study this for themselves, I think, in a really effective way. Of course, there will be, you know, all the AI, um, study of it as well that I think the medical establishment is not really taking into account. You know, the responses have been, "Well, you know, the ultrasound doesn't see this that well, doesn't see that well," or, you know, "We've, we don't actually recommend whole body scans because, you know, there's a lot of false positives," and all this kind of stuff. And all of this is just feels to me like kind of fighting the last war, sort of a, a scarcity mindset on multiple levels. ause, you know, there's a lot of false positives," and all this kind of stuff. And all of this is just feels to me like kind of fighting the last war, sort of a, a scarcity mindset on multiple levels. From the body to mathematics. Karina Hong founded Axiom Math, and her bet runs directly against the entire frontier lab playbook. Not bigger models, but formally verified ones, where a machine checks every step of a proof. She explains what that even means, why it matters, and the milestone that just quietly fell. For the first time, a formal system beat an informal one on a real math Olympiad. What is Lean? How is this paradigm that you're developing different from the paradigm that the frontier companies are developing? And obviously we're hearing pretty amazing things in terms of math results from them too. What makes your Bet and the paradigm you're working in diff-…

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