Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedRyan Greenblatt: uncertainty
11 Aug 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?
“My sense is that the split is something like 20 to 1 or 10 to 1. I don’t know exactly.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Ryan Greenblatt
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 11 Aug 2026
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…I think it’s overwhelmingly compute, but I also think it’s because compute is easier to scale up than data. But that’s really relevant to what’s driving progress, right? My sense is that the split is something like 20 to 1 or 10 to 1. I don’t know exactly. It depends on the company. But this is similar to how oil is 1.5% of GDP. That doesn’t mean that if you cut oil out, GDP could continue to run.…
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