Nathan Lambert: prediction

Transcript context

…So you're sort of saying the reason people were using not enough data initially is cuz they just weren't good enough at cleaning it. And now that those methods have advanced so much, we're moving duplicates better, we can measure quality better, all of that. Like, like do you think we're gonna keep going up, I guess is the question like this, you know, they trained a seven B model on 2 trillion tokens. Like, do you think that's like the Maxim or are we gonna keep going? I kind of like, I, I think the intuition on like what you're saying is how getting more higher quality data is making it so using more works better. I like, that's what everyone in my circles is saying is the trend and given machine learning in the last few years, I think trends tend to be stickier than most people expect them to be. So I would expect it to keep going. I just kind of trust the process to continue for a lot of stuff like this. Yeah. So we on our podcast, we've been asking everyone that we can possibly CAGR ask about, you know, went from two x tokens to perran ratio with Kaplan, and then 20 x with chinch, now 200 x with llama, like someone's gonna try 2000. Right? We did have a response today from one of our previous guests Varun of Codium who said that they did try a thousand to one tokens, to params ratio. And it definitely gone into the range of overfitting. So your loss can continue to go down, but you're not sort of measuring overfitting in, in, in, in some of that respect. So it's, it's very unclear. I would say though, you know, I, I do have visual sources like. Chin. It's not that chinch was wrong. Chinch was optimizing for a particular set of assumptions, particularly the pre-training compute budget, right? Compute optimal sort of scaling laws. And if you look at the llama paper right on the first page, I have it open right in front of me. They actually criticize that and say like, you know, this, this disregards the inference budget which is critical when you're actually serving the model instead of just optimizing for a pre-training compute objective. And as things move from research into production, inference starts to become more, more of a concern. Resource constraints starts becoming more of, more of a concern. And so I, I, I think it's actually quite reasonable to move on from chinchilla, which is a very important result. And, and say that, you know, we are, we are exploring very different objectives as compared to, you know, more than a year ago when Chinchilla was published.…

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