Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: prediction
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“David Epstein, the guy who recently wrote Range, a very interesting guy — you may have had him on your show, I don’t know — but he recently quoted himself from a 2007 newsletter that he wrote, and he said something like, “The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-like viruses among horseshoe bats, combined with a culture of eating exotic meat, is a time bomb.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…But if we take, say, the coronavirus — if we had had a few more extreme nuts who were maybe wrong most of the time but insisting that we needed to fear the next pandemic, wouldn’t we have been better off with that kind of portfolio, and thus, we don’t actually want more accuracy from our forecasters? Well, in some sense we already did have that portfolio. It was a mainstream position among epidemiologists for the last 20 years or so that you had a recipe for disaster. David Epstein, the guy who recently wrote Range, a very interesting guy — you may have had him on your show, I don’t know — but he recently quoted himself from a 2007 newsletter that he wrote, and he said something like, “The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-like viruses among horseshoe bats, combined with a culture of eating exotic meat, is a time bomb. ” But what’s the problem —…
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