Holden Karnofsky: belief

Transcript context

…Gotcha. This is an argument I make in one of my more obscure Cold Takes posts. I say that AI that could actually take everyone's job, like every human's job, might be a lot harder than AI and could radically transform the galaxy via new technology. It might be easier to take a scientist's job than a teacher's job or a doctor's job because the teachers and the doctors are regulated. People might just say, “I want human teachers. I don't want an AI teacher. ” Whereas you can sit there in your lab with your scientists and find new theories that change the world. So some of this stuff, I think, is very counterintuitive, but I can imagine worlds where you get really wacky stuff before you get self-driving cars out on the road just because of the way the regulations work. Gotcha. OK, let's talk about another weak point or the one you identify as a weak point. Lock-in. What do you think are the odds of lock-in given transformative AI?…

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