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Published · transcript-backed

Speaker unverified: belief

1 Feb 2026 Lex Fridman Podcast #490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI

“I think 2025, ’26, ’27—I don’t think something like that is even remotely possible.”

— Speaker unverified

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Speaker
Speaker unverified
Attribution
Not verified from this transcript
Claim type
belief
Recorded
1 Feb 2026
Publisher
Lex Fridman Podcast

Transcript context

……from a military perspective of how you… between China and the United States. And so all of these fun conversations we’re having about LLMs—all the generals and soldiers will come into the room and be like, “All right, we’re now in the Manhattan Project stage of this whole thing.” I think 2025, ’26, ’27—I don’t think something like that is even remotely possible. I mean, you can make the same argument for computers, right? You can say, “Okay, computers are capable and we don’t want the general public to get them.” Or chips—even AI chips—but you see how Huawei makes chips now. It took a few years, but… and I don’t think there is a way you can contain knowledge like that. I think in this day and age, it is impossible, like the internet. I don’t think this is a possibility. On the Manhattan Project thing, one of my funny things looking at them is I think that a Manhattan Project-like thing for open models would actually be pretty reasonable, because it wouldn’t cost that much. But I think that that will come. It seems like culturally, the companies are changing. But I agree with Sebastian on all of the stuff that he just said. It’s just like, I don’t see it happening nor being helpful.…

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