Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedGlen Weyl: prediction
29 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Glen Weyl on Fighting COVID-19 and the Role of the Academic Expert
“I think that even a relatively low rate of false positives could create a huge problem here because the disease prevalence is not that high.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Glen Weyl
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 29 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…At what rate of false positives are these tests not worth doing? I think that even a relatively low rate of false positives could create a huge problem here because the disease prevalence is not that high. So, if you start getting a lot of false positives, pretty much everything that’s going to come up is going to be a false positive. Luckily, the PCR tests have shown a very low rate of false positives so far. But is that data on false positives very reliable? Because we don’t have another test to test the test, right? There’s never been a control group when we subject people to all the different tests and then find out if they really had it. We have a lot of uncertainty about test quality?…
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