Shawn Wang: uncertainty

Transcript context

…And I mean, like anything that we do, it’s not a perfect metric or the whole story of everything that you think about as hallucination. But yeah, it’s pretty useful and has some interesting results. Like one of the things that we saw in the hallucination rate is that anthropics Claude models at the, the, the very left-hand side here with the lowest hallucination rates out of the models that we’ve evaluated amnesty is on. That is an interesting fact. I think it probably correlates with a lot of the previously, not really measured vibes stuff that people like about some of the Claude models. Is the dataset public or what’s is it, is there a held out set? There’s a hell of a set for this one. So we, we have published a public test set, but we we’ve only published 10% of it. The reason is that for this one here specifically, it would be very, very easy to like have data contamination because it is just factual knowledge questions. We would. We’ll update it at a time to also prevent that, but with yeah, kept most of it held out so that we can keep it reliable for a long time. It leads us to a bunch of really cool things, including breakdown quite granularly by topic. And so we’ve got some of that disclosed on the website publicly right now, and there’s lots more coming in terms of our ability to break out very specific topics. Yeah. I would be interested. Let’s, let’s dwell a little bit on this hallucination one. I noticed that Haiku hallucinates less than Sonnet hallucinates less than Opus. And yeah. Would that be the other way around in a normal capability environments? I don’t know. What’s, what do you make of that? One interesting aspect is that we’ve found that there’s not really a, not a strong correlation between intelligence and hallucination, right? That’s to say that the smarter the models are in a general sense, isn’t correlated with their ability to, when they don’t know something, say that they don’t know. It’s interesting that Gemini three pro preview was a big leap over here. Gemini 2.5. Flash and, and, and 2.5 pro, but, and if I add pro quickly here.…

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