Nathan Lambert: belief

Transcript context

…I think 2025, ’26, ’27—I don’t think something like that is even remotely possible. I mean, you can make the same argument for computers, right? You can say, “Okay, computers are capable and we don’t want the general public to get them.” Or chips—even AI chips—but you see how Huawei makes chips now. It took a few years, but… and I don’t think there is a way you can contain knowledge like that. I think in this day and age, it is impossible, like the internet. I don’t think this is a possibility. On the Manhattan Project thing, one of my funny things looking at them is I think that a Manhattan Project-like thing for open models would actually be pretty reasonable, because it wouldn’t cost that much. But I think that that will come. It seems like culturally, the companies are changing. But I agree with Sebastian on all of the stuff that he just said. It’s just like, I don’t see it happening nor being helpful. Yeah. I mean, the motivating force behind the Manhattan Project was that there was civilizational risk. It’s harder to motivate that for open-source models.…

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