David Deutsch: commitment

Transcript context

…Gotcha. Okay. So the way I understand that your customers are getting infinite, it seems to me that the more knowledge we gain, the less knowledge we're in a position to gain. So there should be an exponential growth of knowledge. But if we look at the last 50 years, it seems that there has been a slowdown or decrease in research productivity, economic growth, and productivity growth. This seems compatible with the story that there's a limited amount of fruit on the tree that we picked the low hanging fruit and now there's less and less fruit and harder and harder fruit to pick. And, eventually the orchard will be empty. So do you have an alternative explanation for what's been going on in the last 50 years? Yes, it's very simple. There are sociological factors in academic life, which have stultified the culture. Not totally and not everywhere, but that has been a tendency in what has happened. It has resulted in a loss of productivity in many sectors, in many ways, (but not in every sector, not in every way). For example, I've often said there was a solidification in theoretical physics, starting in the 1920s, and it still hasn't fully dissipated if it wasn't for that. Quantum computers wouldn’t have been invented in the 1930s and built in the 1960s. So that is just an accidental fact. But it just goes to show that there are no guarantees. The fact that our horizons are unlimited, does not guarantee that we will get anywhere and that we won't start declining tomorrow. I don't think we are currently declining. These declines that we see are parochial effects caused by specific mistakes that have been made, and which can be undone. Okay, so I want to ask you a question about Bayesianism versus Praetorianism. So one reason why people prefer Bayes is because there seems to be a way of describing changes in epistemic status when the relative status of a theory hasn't changed. So I'll give you an example. Currently, the Many Worlds explanation is the best way to explain quantum mechanics. Right? But suppose in the future, we were able to build an AGI on a quantum computer and were able to design some clever interference experiment, as you suggest to have it be able to report back being in a superposition across many worlds. Now, it seems that even though many worlds remain the best, the only explanation somehow is that its epistemic status has changed as a result of the experiment. In terms of the Bayesian theory, you can say the credibility of this theory has increased. So how would you describe these sorts of changes in Praetorian view?…

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