Nathan Labenz: belief

Transcript context

…just have to collect this data. We gotta put it together, and we don't have it right now. And until we collect that data, which will inherently be a relatively slow process, it's just gonna take time. And we realize that it's, we're looking at a couple years of that sort of a process, of a sort of data diffusion, data collection, more diffusion type of a loop. That's gonna take a couple years, and that slows the growth estimates, and all of a sudden this is all about the second derivative, right? It's about the, the rate at which the rate of growth is accelerating, um, or grow- or changing. And it, you start to see that if you start to see the CapEx go down, then that could cause the stocks to go down by 20, 30%, something like that. And all of a sudden at that point, you might trigger even more sale, and then you get this dynamic where everyone's balance sheet is all of a sudden in some trouble. And it's not clear that everyone can make all the commitments that they had, and that throws in all this IP that again, is gonna be really important for the future of the country, at which point it does become a matter of the public interest, and I don't think it's crazy for, for the government to, to say, "We gotta do something about this." So yeah, I think it's, I think it's unfortunately, I don't know that there's anything you can do about this. It's like this is maybe just what happens when you build national level infrastructure. And ultimately, I don't think... I think avoiding this would be great, but, and I don't think that AI companies should be going around asking for such a bailout or a backstop, but there is this implicit reality that the government is just in the same way that when COVID happened, the government was like implicitly the backstop behind a pandemic, right? We didn't, no one wrote that down before COVID, but it just ended up being true as a practical matter because that's the way the world works. So given all that context, in negotiations between the US government and AI companies going forward, and we could have in mind here obviously the current Anthropic situation, but also I'm thinking about OpenAI's relationship with the government with, for example, respect to the agreement that, as I understand it, they have with the Department of War, where they're gonna be able to create their own safeguards, right? I believe that was pretty clearly stated as part of the deal that OpenAI had made right in the wake of the supply chain designation. Yeah.…

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