Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedScott Alexander: evaluation
3 Apr 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
“Henrich is talking about this very unfair comparison where these guys have a 50,000 year head start and then you put this guy in, “oh, I guess this doesn’t help that much.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Scott Alexander
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 3 Apr 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…You don’t want to open that can of worms. Versus surviving in the wilderness, which is something where it seems like intelligence doesn’t help that much. First of all, maybe intelligence does help that much. Henrich is talking about this very unfair comparison where these guys have a 50,000 year head start and then you put this guy in, “oh, I guess this doesn’t help that much. Okay, yeah, it doesn’t help against the 50,000 year head start”. I don’t really know what we’re asking of ASI that’s equivalent to competing against someone with a 50,000 year head start. So what we’re asking is to radically boost up the technological maturity of civilization within the matter of years or get us to the Dyson sphere in the matter of years rather than, yes, maybe causing a 10xing of the research. But I think human civilization would have taken centuries to get to the Dyson sphere.…
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