Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedScott Alexander: belief
3 Apr 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
“I actually argued with Daniel about this recently about one interesting case that I can go over is we have an estimate that about a year after the superintelligences start wanting robots, they’re producing a million units of robots per month. I think that’s pretty relevant because you have.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Scott Alexander
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 3 Apr 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…But it’s not clear to me that most of the new stuff that is developed is a result of this researcher population. I mean, there’s just so many examples in the history of science where a lot of growth or productivity is just the result of, how do you count the guy at the TSMC process who figures out a different way to… I actually argued with Daniel about this recently about one interesting case that I can go over is we have an estimate that about a year after the superintelligences start wanting robots, they’re producing a million units of robots per month. I think that’s pretty relevant because you have. I think it’s Wright’s law, which is that your ability to improve efficiency on a process is proportional to doubling the amount of copies produced. So if you’re producing a million of something, you’re probably getting very, very good at it. So the question we were arguing about is, can you produce a million units a month after a year. And for context, I think Tesla produces like a quarter of that in terms of cars or something. This is an amazing scale up in a year. It’s only 4x. Also just for Tesla.…
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