Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedPhilip E. Tetlock: uncertainty
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“We don’t know how relations with Russia would be if NATO hadn’t gone into the Baltics.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Yeah, keep on going. Now, we can’t rerun history. We don’t know how relations with Russia would be if NATO hadn’t gone into the Baltics. “Russia would have gobbled up the Baltics.” “Maybe Russia would be friendly or feel less threatened.” You have people who have more hawkish or more dovish mental models of Russia, and those mental models predispose them to give you certain canned, almost ideologically reflective answers to those counterfactuals, right? Right.…
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