Daniel Yergin: prediction

Transcript context

…But including our exports? That's why when the Japanese prime minister was here for a state visit a few months ago, they were expressing great alarm about future LNG exports. For them, being able to import energy from the US is very critical to their energy security. Where else are they going to get their LNG? They'll get some from the Middle East, some from Australia, but they'll be pushed back to getting it from Vladimir Putin. For them, US energy exports, US shale, has become part of their energy security. I never thought of it quite that way, but if you think about what the Japanese are saying, that's really what their message is. I did an event with the Japanese prime minister in the springtime. That came through very clearly. For them, US exports are part of the security relationship. US LNG is now part of the arsenal of NATO. It's really different. We're talking about the geopolitical significance of US shale. No one would be happier to see a ban on US shale production than Vladimir Putin. I have firsthand sense of that. In 2013, before he annexed Crimea, I was at this conference, which was his version of a global economic conference. They said I could ask the first question. It was going to be something we were talking about before, overdependence on oil and gas revenues. I mentioned the word “shale” and he erupted and said, “It's barbaric, it's terrible.” He got really angry in front of 3000 people. It's rather uncomfortable in that position. I realized there were two reasons. One, he was worried about shale gas competing with Russian gas. Two, he saw that the shale revolution would augment the position and influence of the US because the US would no longer be energy dependent. He was very prescient. He was right about both of them. When he invaded Crimea, I don’t think he never imagined that if he cut off the gas to Europe, that Europe could survive. Europe survived. The Prize especially, but all your books are narratively driven. You have a detailed understanding of people and events and so forth compared to somebody who's just like, "Here's how many barrels are produced in year X. Here's how many barrels are produced in year Y." When you're in these conversations, or you're trying to think about the future of energy, do you feel like you really need to know how Drake was thinking about the drill well and…?…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.