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Benjamin Mann: belief

20 Jul 2025 Lenny's Podcast Anthropic co-founder on quitting OpenAI, AGI predictions, $100M talent wars, 20% unemployment, and the nightmare scenarios keeping him up at night | Ben Mann

“I think we're just in an unprecedented era of scale and it's only going to get crazier actually.”

— Benjamin Mann

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Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker
Benjamin Mann
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
belief
Recorded
20 Jul 2025
Publisher
Lenny's Podcast

Transcript context

…Wow. If you just think about the amount of impact that individuals can have on a company's trajectory, in our case, we are selling hotcakes and if we get a 1 or 10 or 5% efficiency bonus on our inference stack, that is worth an incredible amount of money. And so to pay individuals like $100 million over four year package, that's actually pretty cheap compared to the value created for the business. I think we're just in an unprecedented era of scale and it's only going to get crazier actually. If you extrapolate the exponential on how much companies are spending, it's like 2X a year roughly in terms of CapEx, and today we're maybe in the globally $300 billion range, the entire industry spending on this, and so numbers like 100 million are a drop in the bucket. But if you go a few years out, a couple more doublings, we're talking about trillions of dollars and at that point it's just really hard to think about these numbers. Along these lines, something that a lot of people feel with AI progress is that we're hitting plateaus in many ways that it feels like newer models are just not as smart as previous leaps. But I know you don't believe this. I know you don't believe that we've hit plateaus on scaling loss. Talk about just what you're seeing there and what you think people are missing.…

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