Packy McCormick: prediction

Transcript context

…This is too far. That one was a 15 billion percent IRR for a little while. Time has gone on, but that was 15 billion. It wasn't an investment. I was donating or contributing to the Constitution. This isn't the pick, but the Twitter thesis is that everybody in this room—half of us are here—is because of Twitter. The average that it would take to pull people off of Twitter has to be in the hundreds, if not thousands, or tens of thousands of dollars. Yet they're monetizing like Android right now. Twitter needs to be the Apple of social media. It has a small but loyal and valuable user base. The board doesn't use Twitter. Jack is doing whatever Jack stuff, but somebody's going to come in to monetize that thing. I think if you charge for verification, you get rid of the bot problem. If the 80 million people who use Twitter in the US paid $3 a month you're looking at like a $3 billion recurring revenue opportunity annually for Twitter. He's going to fire the headcount. He has to pay his debt service, but I would imagine 90% of people on Twitter—if there's anybody in the room, I'm so sorry—don't do very much. There's a lot you can do on the cost side. Then I think with somebody like Elon, it's either going to go horribly, horribly, horribly wrong or it's going to go really, really, really well. I think that you can kind of build the missing WhatsApp of the US on the Twitter platform where you have all of these valuable passionate users. At $43 billion, do you think when he takes the same public again and three years later that he can do that a fifth of whatever Facebook's valuation is? It's pretty safe to ask. It's not the pick. We're not getting out of here at 8 PM tonight. There’s not a chance.…

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