John Collison: prediction

Transcript context

…The ghost city? The ghost city is Nashville. We just started there. We just opened it up to riders in four new cities in one day. That was one of those little but super exciting moments where I thought back to the history, like how long did it take us from the first time we started fully autonomous, rider-only operation to the first time we had external riders in four cities. It was about eight years. Then the other week, we just launched four in one day. Yes. It seems now clear that in 15 years, most miles that are driven will be autonomous. There will be some burn in period, and it's lots of old cars in the road. I think it'll actually take a little while. Some of that will be by level four, level five systems expanding in new cities and that expansion continuing. Some of it will be, you referenced the existing driver assist systems and getting up to level two and level three, and existing systems across current car brands getting more and more capable. What do you think that working your way up from the lower levels versus working your way expanding from existing products like Waymo? What will that convergence look like? Because we're going to eat it from both sides. I don't believe we will. I actually think this—…

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