Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedCliff Asness: evaluation
18 Nov 2015 Conversations with Tyler Cliff Asness on Comics and Why Never to Share a Gym with Cirque du Soleil (Live at Mason)
“If you are the 100th percentile today, but you’re 150 percent of the prior 100th percentile excluding the last couple years, that means you’ve shot off to the moon.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Cliff Asness
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 18 Nov 2015
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…I’m a math guy. But I will tell you, not all 100th percentiles are equal. If you are the 100th percentile today, but you’re 150 percent of the prior 100th percentile excluding the last couple years, that means you’ve shot off to the moon. In the technology bubble, the Shiller CAPE is probably 50 percent higher than it had ever been if you excluded the period right around that. Japanese stocks, in ’89, ’90, got to levels like that. You might call it an inverse bubble. I think US stocks in the early ’80s maybe got to a similar extent, well past anything we’ve ever seen on the downside, in the very early ’80s. I was willing to call those bubbles, and did real time. I wrote that piece you’re talking about. Sure.…
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