Sam Altman: belief

Transcript context

…You know, we used to, every time we finished a system, we would say like, in what way is this not an AGI? Okay. And it used to be like, very easy, you could like, make a little robotic hand that does a prefix cube, or a dotabot, and it's like, oh, it does some things, but definitely not an AGI. It's obviously harder to say now, and so we're trying to like, stop talking about AGI as this general thing. We have this levels framework, because the word AGI has become so overloaded. So like, real quickly, we use one for chatbots, two for reasoners, three for agents, four for innovators, five for organizations, like roughly. I think we clearly got to level two, or we clearly got to level two. With O1 and it, you know, can do really quite impressive Python tasks. It's a very smart model. It doesn't feel AGI like in a few important ways, but I think if you just do the one next step of making it, you know, very agent like, which is our level three, and which I think we will be able to do in the not distant future, It will feel surprisingly capable still probably not something that most of you would call an AGI, though maybe some of you would but it's going to feel like, all right, this is, this is like a significant thing. And then the, the leap, and I think we do that pretty quickly the, the leap from that to something that can really increase the rate of new scientific discovery, which for me is like a very important part. of having an AGI. I feel a little bit less certain on that, but not a long time. Like, I think all of this now is going to happen pretty quickly, and if you think about what happened from last decade to this one, in terms of model capabilities, and you're like, eh. I mean, if you go look at like, If you go from my 01 on a hard problem back to like 4Turbo that we launched 11 months ago, you'll be like, wow, this is happening pretty fast. And I think the next year will be very steep progress. Next two years will be very steep progress. Harder than that. Hard to say with a lot of certainty. But I would say like the math will vary. And at this point, the definitions really matter. And in fact, the fact that the definitions matter this much, Somehow means we're, like, getting pretty close. Yeah. views on this evolved? You know, the one, I agree with that, I think we're, like, you know, in this, like, kind of period where it's It's gonna feel very blurry for a while, and the, you know, is this AGI yet, or is this not AGI, or kind of like, at what point? It's just gonna be this like, smooth exponential, and, you know, probably most people, looking back at history, won't agree, like, when that milestone was hit, and will just realize it was like, a silly thing. Even the Turing test, which I thought always was like, this very clear milestone, you know, there was this like, fuzzy period. that milestone was hit, and will just realize it was like, a silly thing. Even the Turing test, which I thought always was like, this very clear milestone, you know, there was this like, fuzzy period. It kind of like, went oosh and bye, no one cared But, but I think the right framework is just this one exponential. That said if we can make an AI system that is like materially better at all of open AI than doing, at doing AI research, that does feel to me like some sort of important discontinuity. It's probably still wrong to think about it that way. It probably still is the smooth exponential curve. Bye. That feels like a new milestone. Is…

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